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by Jess Gibson

Plans to utilise spare capacity in primary schools across England to deliver the spaces required for the ongoing early entitlement expansion is “unlikely to work”, a report produced by consultancy Frontier Economics has stated.  

According to government estimates, the expansion of the early education entitlement will require nearly 78,000 new early years places by September 2025. The government has proposed using spare capacity within primary schools – caused by a reduction in the numbers of children in primary schools – to create 3000 30-place nurseries to meet this demand.  

However, according to new analysis of the feasibility of this plan conducted by Frontier Economics using government data: 

• At a local authority level, reception spare space alone meets less than half of the new demand in just under half (49%) of local authorities, with just over one in 10 (11%) local authorities projected to have no spare capacity in reception. 

• In three regions, only small proportions of the new nursery demand can be met with reception space alone (13% in the East Midlands, 25% in the East of England and 32% in the West Midlands). 

• If reception and Year 1 spare capacity could be combined, half of local authorities would have sufficient spare space to meet demand, rising to just under two-thirds (64%) if Year 2 capacity could also be combined with the younger age groups. 

• But even by combining spare space across all three infant groups, spare capacity would be less than half the new nursery demand in 17% of local authorities, with no spare capacity in 7% of local authorities. 

In addition, Frontier Economics has shown further evidence from government data that suggests the amount of total ‘spare capacity’ in primary schools differs across the country, being lowest in the East Midlands and highest in London.  

, who led the research at Frontier Economics, said: “Our analysis shows that the Government’s current plan to use spare capacity in primary schools to deliver new nursery targets is unlikely to work. Even with full utilisation of spare capacity, the poor geographic match with new nursery demand leaves some areas falling well short.  

“This suggests that it may be time to explore additional approaches for expanding nursery provision. Supporting expansion of existing nurseries in schools, or providing sufficient funding to encourage expansion of the delivery of free places in private and voluntary settings, could be good places to start.” 

Commenting, Neil Leitch, CEO of the Early Years Alliance, said: "While the government is absolutely right to focus on increasing capacity in the early years, as this research shows, plans to boost nursery spaces in primary schools alone are highly unlikely to meet the ever-increasing demand for early years places.   

"It is clear, therefore, that if the government is truly serious about ensuring that all families are able to access places when and where they need them, ministers must look beyond schools and focus on supporting the sector’s existing infrastructure of private, voluntary and independent providers, who currently deliver the vast majority of early years provision in this country. This means making sure that this vital part of the sector has both the funding and staff levels needed to be able to meet the rapidly growing demand for places.   

"Ultimately, if the government’s promise to parents of more funded care and education is ever to be realised, encouraging schools to open new early years provision can only ever form part of much wider plans to support the growth of the entirety of the sector."